This section covers the October 2022 – January 2023 disaster events worldwide. Apart from floods, cyclones and droughts, this section also highlights the current situation of the Desert locust across the globe.
1. RUSSIA-UKRAINE CONFLICT
The large-scale conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which broke out on February 24, 2022, continues to devastate the region. As the conflict approaches its first anniversary, there appears to be no end in sight. The conflict has also had far-reaching impacts, disrupting the global agricultural system, which is struggling to cope with the adverse effects of climate change and the COVID-19 pandemic. The impact of the crisis is alarming, not only threatening supply chains but also posing significant food production and trade risks.
As the conflict's first anniversary approaches, some positive developments occurred in agriculture of Ukraine, such as the national cropped arable land fraction, which according to the Remote Sensing CropWatch monitoring system, has increased by 13% from October 2022-January 2023 compared to the average of the past five years. The Southern wheat and winter crops area have seen an increase by 29%, while in the Central wheat area, it has increased by 14%, which could lead to an increase in total grain production. However, these developments must be viewed in the context of the ongoing conflict, as reports indicate that global market conditions might not provide short-term relief, leading to more pain for communities that are already suffering from hunger.
2. FLOODS AND LANDSLIDE
During the initial week of 2023, 18 floods and 6 landslides impacted Indonesia and the Philippines. As per reports from the Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB), Banten, West Java, Central Java, East Java, East Nusa Tenggara, West Sulawesi, and South Sulawesi areas were affected by floods, landslides, and wind-related disasters that were triggered by moderate to heavy rainfall, overflowing rivers, and strong winds. In early October, Costa Rica was overwhelmed by Cyclone Julia which brought together rains which exceeded 200 mm, causing rivers and streams to overflow.
THE PHILIPPINES: Starting around December 23, 2022, a combination of a Shear Line storm and a trough of low pressure caused extensive damage, including floods and landslides, throughout the Philippines. The calamity initially impacted around 200,000 people and resulted in 17 fatalities as of December 27, 2022. However, only four days later on January 1, 2023, the number of affected people skyrocketed to nearly 600,000, and the fatality count rose by over 100% to 51. As of January 8, 2023, the number of dead reached 52, with 18 people still missing and 16 injured. Over 600,000 people were affected. Additionally, a separate incident involving a Low-Pressure system caused flooding due to continuous light to moderate heavy rains in various municipalities in MIMAROPA as of January 4, 2023. This episode affected a total of 3,275 people across 18 flooded areas.
3. FIRE
RECORD BURNING IN THE AMAZON RAINFOREST: The role played by the Amazon rainforest in regulating the Earth's climate is crucial, making it one of the most significant ecosystems on the planet. Regrettably, in recent years, there has been an unprecedented surge in forest fires, with 2022 experiencing a notable increase.
Figure 1. Territories most affected by wildfires (in hectares) (Source: https://g1.globo.com/meio-ambiente/noticia/2023/01/31/area-de-florestas-queimadas-quase-dobra-em-1-ano-diz-mapbiomas.ghtml)
In 2022, there were high levels of fires in the Amazon. The Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais’s (INPE) Fire Program registered almost 115,000 fire outbreaks, the highest number since 2010 and a 53% increase from 2021.
In December alone, there were 2,743 fire outbreaks in the Amazon rainforest, which is an unusual situation for the period as it is typically marked by rainfall and low number of fires. This represents a 73% increase from the same period the previous year when 1,584 fire outbreaks were identified. Fires are not a natural occurrence in the humid, tropical Amazon rainforest. Instead, farmers resort to deforestation and burning of trees to clear land, and on occasion, these fires spiral out of control. Although fires may lead to deforestation in the Amazon rainforest, which alters the climate patterns, the newly created agricultural fields may, at some point, lead to increases in grain production, at least in the short term. This could potentially alleviate global food insecurity through grain exports. However, in the long run crop production will drop and become erratic, because of a reduction in rainfall and prolonged droughts.
4. DROUGHT
EAST AFRICA: As of October 2022, the drought situation in East Africa was in watch condition due to the deficit in rainfall with warning conditions in Ethiopia, Somalia, Kenya and Uganda. The indicator showed a drought alert situation in Northwestern Tanzania and across Kenya, while the other regions were on watch. The watch situation prevailed over the region by the end of January with some warning conditions scattered across Kenya, Somalia and Ethiopia.
Figure 2. Monthly combined drought indicator for west Africa from October 2022-January 2023 (Source: https://droughtwatch.icpac.net/mapviewer/)
As of December 2022, many areas in the Horn of Africa have experienced their fifth consecutive failed rainy season, resulting in the most prolonged and severe drought that the region has encountered in recent history. This drought surpasses that of 2010-2011 and 2016-17. It was projected that about 21 million people could face acute food insecurity between October and December 2022, and over 8.9 million livestock have died across the region. Furthermore, pastoralists are reportedly traveling further to find food and water for their livestock, which often leads to an increase in conflicts between communities. In some areas, agro-pastoralists and agriculturalists are experiencing poor crop yields due to prolonged crop moisture stress, resulting in a reduction of up to 70% in crop yields during the 2022 long rains season.
URUGUAY: The country has been facing severe droughts in its agricultural areas since 2018, which have led to reduced rainfall and increased temperatures during the summer seasons. According to reports, 60% of the country's territory is experiencing extreme or severe drought. Over 75,000 people have been affected by the emergency, with the lack of access to safe water being a pressing concern. To address the situation, the national government declared a state of agricultural emergency until the end of April 2023. The emergency declaration includes livestock, dairy, fruit, horticulture, agriculture, poultry, beekeeping, and forestry. Reports indicate that droughts are affecting the country, with 20.51% of the territory experiencing extreme drought. The situation remains a concern for the country's food security and rural development.
ARGENTINA: Since 2019, several parts of Argentina and neighboring countries have been experiencing drought conditions. During the months of September, October, November, and December 2022, the precipitation levels were below half of the average, marking the lowest rainfall in 35 years. The combination of low precipitation and high temperatures (with the country experiencing its warmest November-January) has led to widespread crop failure. Consequently, the country, which is one of the major wheat exporters, expects a 28% drop in total exports compared to the 2022 levels.
PERU: As of November 2022, Peru's government declared a state of emergency aimed at the drought situation in the country, which according to the national weather service, Senamhi, is one of the worst when compared to the past half century, which is exacerbated by the offshore La Nina weather phenomenon. The drought in the Peruvian Andes has ravaged alpaca flocks and withered potato crops. Also, the Andean hamlets for Quechua- and Aymara-speaking indigenous groups have faced critical losses of crops and livestock herds.
TURKEY: As of December 2021, the country experienced its warmest December in nearly 52 years, leading to a drastic decrease in rainfall and exacerbating the drought situation in Turkey, particularly in many of its agricultural areas. The critically low dam levels resulting from the drought could negatively impact the country's agricultural output. The lack of snow and rain during winter worsens the drought conditions, putting many parts of the country at risk of further suffering. As the drought persists, the production of fruits and vegetables will most certainly be negatively affected, which will not only impact the agricultural sector but also put significant strain on the country's economy and food security. The great earthquake in Türkiye occurred after this monitoring period, and the impact of the earthquake will be the focus of the next monitoring period.
5. DESERT LOCUST
According to the FAO’s reports, the Desert Locust situation in October 2022 was calm, with only low numbers of solitarious adults and hoppers observed in certain areas. In northwest Mauritania, a few copulating adults and transients hoppers were treated in an area of 213 ha, while a group of adults was sighted in Sudan. Light rain fell intermittently along the Red Sea coast of Yemen, and rain had started in some parts of the coast of Sudan, Eritrea, and Saudi Arabia. No locusts or rain were reported in Southeast Asia during this period.
In November 2022, the CASEarth working group on Monitoring and assessment of desert locusts in Asia and Africa reported that suitable conditions for the survival and reproduction of the desert locust were observed in northwestern Somalia due to increased rainfall and vegetation. A total of 54.7 thousand hectares of vegetation were damaged during this period, including 0.2 thousand hectares of cropland, 2.1 thousand hectares of grassland, and 52.4 thousand hectares of shrub, which account for 2.06%, 0.5%, and 1.1% of the total country’s area of cropland, grassland, and shrub, respectively. The north-West province had the largest damaged area of 23.3 thousand hectares, followed by Togdheer with 17.5 thousand hectares, and Sanaag and Awdal with 8.9 and 5.0 thousand hectares of affected areas, respectively. During the same period, the western coast of the Red Sea in Yemen reported the presence of Desert Locust due to the combination of low rainfall and sufficient vegetation, which creates favourable conditions for their survival and reproduction. The total vegetation damage in the region was about 64.4 thousand hectares, with 8.2 thousand hectares of grassland and 56.2 thousand hectares of shrub, accounting for 2.85% and 1.40% of the total area of grassland and shrub in Yemen, respectively. In December 2022, a very small outbreak continued in northwest Mauritania and low numbers of locust adults were observed in the southern Western Sahara of Morocco.
Figure 3. Desert locust situation as for December 2022, on the left (Source: http://desertlocust-crc.org/Pages/NewsDetails.aspx?lang=EN&Cat=2&I=0&DId=0&CId=0&CMSId=800362&id=2407045) and January 2023, on the right (Source: https://www.fao.org/ag/locusts/en/info/info/index.html)
In January 2023, scattered hoppers and adults with a few adult groups were present in the southern Western Sahara of Morocco. On the Red Sea coast, hoppers and adults were present in Sudan and low numbers of adults were present on the coast of Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Eritrea, and northwest Somalia.
References
https://reliefweb.int/report/philippines/philippines-flooding-mimaropa-4-jan-2023 .
https://www.adrc.asia/view_disaster_en.php?NationCode=608&Lang=en&Key=2590
https://reliefweb.int/disaster/fl-2022-000348-cri
https://reliefweb.int/report/chile/chile-fires-december-2022-dref-application-mdrcl015
https://reliefweb.int/attachments/ff4b5672-6171-4049-9eaa-811ee5d846c4/MDRCL015do.pdf
https://www.fao.org/ag/locusts/en/info/info/index.html
https://droughtwatch.icpac.net/mapviewer/
https://reliefweb.int/report/somalia/drought-horn-africa-regional-analysis-february-2023
https://reliefweb.int/report/uruguay/uruguay-droughts-january-2023-dref-application-mdruy004
https://ipad.fas.usda.gov/cropexplorer/pecad_stories.aspx?regionid=umb&ftype=prodbriefs
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/01/15/business/global-food-crisis-davos/index.html