The planting of winter wheat, winter barley and rapeseed took place between September and November. The NDVI development curves were below the 5-year average during this monitoring period,which may have been caused by clouds or snow.  Rainfall for the country was near average (RAIN -2%), while temperature (TEMP +0.8°C) and radiation (RADPAR +9%) were significantly above average. The favorable conditions resulted in above-average biomass (BIOMSS +6%). The seasonal RAIN profile shows that the rainfall was fluctuating during this monitoring period. The TEMP profile shows that temperature was overall above average except in early December, mid-December, and mid-January.

The national average VCIx was 0.90. CALF (100%) was unchanged compared to its five-year average. Crop production index was 1.08. The NDVI departure cluster profiles indicate that: (1) 69.5% of arable land (blue line and red line) experienced average crop conditions, mainly  the South and East of England. (2) 30.5% of arable land ( yellow line, green line and dark green line), mainly in Scotland, Wales and North-east England,  had average crop conditions during most of the monitoring period. Most likely, the large drops of NDVI can be attributed to cloud cover in the satellite images and snow. Altogether, the conditions for winter wheat in the UK are assessed as above-average.

Regional analysis

Based on cropping systems, climatic zones, and topographic conditions, three sub-national regions are described below: the Northern barley region （84）, Central sparse crop region （83） and Southern mixed wheat and barley region (85). All three sub-regions are characterized by an unchanged fraction of cropped arable land (CALF) compared to the 5YA.

In the Northern barley region, NDVI was below average. Rainfall (RAIN -1%) and radiation (RADPAR -7%) were below average, and temperature (TEMP +0.7°C) was above average. Biomass was above average (BIOMSS +6%). The VCIx was 0.91. Crop production index was 1.09. Overall, the conditions were above average.

The Central sparse crop region is one of the country's major regions for crop production.  NDVI was below average, similar to the Northern barley region. Rainfall (RAIN -13%) was significantly below average,  while temperatures (TEMP +0.6°C) and radiation (RADPAR +10%) were above average. Biomass（BIOMSS +4%）was above average. The VCIx was 0.89. Crop production index was 1.07. Overall, the conditions were above average.

In the Southern mixed wheat and barley zone, NDVI was below or close to average. Rainfall (RAIN +5%), temperatures (TEMP +0.9°C) and radiation (RADPAR +15%) were significantly above average. Agro-climate conditions resulted in above-average biomass (BIOMSS +7%).  The VCIx was 0.90. Crop production index was 1.07. Overall, the conditions were above average.

Figure 3.18 United Kingdom crop condition, October 2022-January 2023

(a). Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI         (c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                         (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Time series rainfall profile (left) and temperature profile (right) 

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Northern Barley region (left) and Central sparse crop region (right))

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Southern mixed wheat and Barley zone)

Table 3.28 United Kingdom's agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, October 2022-January 2023

Table 3.29 United Kingdom's agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departures from 5YA, October 2022-January 2023