During the monitoring period, the second-season rice in Java and the dry-season corn had been harvested. The rainy season corn in Java and Sumatra and the main season rice had been sown in November.

CropWatch agroclimatic indicators showed that temperatures were close to the 15YA (TEMP +0.0°C), precipitation was below the average (RAIN -2%), but radiation was above the 15YA (RADPAR +2%), which resulted in above-average potential biomass production (BIOMSS +2%).

According to the regional NDVI development graph, crop conditions were below the 5YA in the whole monitoring period. Flooding occurred in Indonesia between December 2022 and January 2023,  which caused a drop in NDVI in some parts. The NDVI departure cluster profiles indicate that 31.3% of arable land was close to or below the average, mainly distributed in Sumatra, Kalimantan, Sulawesi, and Irian. On the remaining 68.7%, located in Java, Kalimantan, and Sumatra, the conditions looked less favorable. However, this might be an artifact due to frequent cloud cover in the satellite images, which causes low NDVI values. The area of cropped arable land (CALF 99%) in Indonesia was close to the 5YA and the VCIx value was 0.92. The CPI index of all regions in Indonesia is greater than 1. In general, crop conditions can be anticipated as normal.

Regional analysis

This analysis focuses on four agro-ecological zones in Indonesia: Sumatra (92), Java (90, the main agricultural region in Indonesia), Kalimantan and Sulawesi (91), and West Papua (93), among which the first three are the most relevant for crop cultivation. The numbers correspond to the labels in the VCIx and NDVI profile maps.

On Java, the temperature was below the average (TEMP -0.4°C), while precipitation and radiation were above the 15YA (RAIN +16%, RADPAR +1%), resulting in the potential biomass production increase (BIOMSS +7%). According to the NDVI development graphs, crop conditions were close to the 5YA in the early stage of the monitoring period, but they were below average in December and January. The Crop Production Index (CPI) in Java was 1, which indicates normal conditions.  Overall, crop conditions can be assessed as normal in Java.

On Kalimantan and Sulawesi, precipitation was below the average (RAIN -2%). whereas temperature and radiation were above the 15YA (TEMP +0.1°C, RADPAR +2%), which brought an increase in the potential biomass production (BIOMSS +3%). As shown in the NDVI development graphs, crop conditions were significantly below the 5YA. This can be partly attributed to the floods that occurred in this region in January. The Crop Production Index (CPI) in Kalimantan and Sulawesi was 1. The crop conditions can be assessed as normal. 

According to the agroclimatic conditions of Sumatra, radiation was close to the 15YA (RADPAR +0%), precipitation and temperature were below average (RAIN -4%, TEMP -0.1°C) and the potential biomass production was above average (BIOMSS +1%). NDVI development graphs show that crop conditions were below the 5YA. However, cloud cover in the satellite images caused some outliers, and thus the spatial distribution map needs to be interpreted with care and has limited value. The Crop Production Index (CPI) in Sumatra was 1, and the crop conditions can be assessed as normal.

                                                       Figure 3.19. Indonesia’s crop condition, October 2022 – January 2023

                                                                                   (a). Phenology of major crops

     (b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                                                   (c) Maximum VCI

                          (d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                                                                                        (e) NDVI profiles

                               (f)Rainfall profiles                                                                                                       (g)Temperature profiles

                            (h)Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Java (left) and Kalimantan-Sulawesi (right))

                                                                       (i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Sumatra)

Table 3.29 Indonesia’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, 

                                                                 October 2022 – January 2023

Table 3.30 Indonesia’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 5YA, 

                                                October 2022 – January 2023