This report covers the sowing period of winter crops in the major production zone (MPZ) of Western Europe. In general, crop conditions were above average or close to average in most parts of this region due to favourable sunshine conditions and warmer-than-usual temperatures (Figure 2.5).

The CropWatch agro-climatic indicators show that the overall rainfall deficit across the MPZ has continued from the last two reports, but the magnitude of the deficit has been significantly reduced, with a deficit of only 2% below average for the whole MPZ for this reporting period. The spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall varies considerably between countries, and rainfall patterns can be characterized as follows:  (1) Precipitation was about average in 50.5% of the MPZ (green and dark green areas in Fig. 2.6a), with the exception of late November/early December and late January, when precipitation was well below average, and late December and mid-January, when precipitation was well above average. This includes most of Germany, most of France and central and northern UK; (2) Precipitation was below average in 25.4% of the MPZ (yellow areas in Fig. 2.6a), with the exception of slightly above average precipitation in early and mid-December and mid-January. It mainly affected eastern and northeastern Spain, southeastern France (Auvergne Rhone-Alpes), northern and southeastern Italy and eastern and northeastern Germany (Saxony, Brandenburg, Saxony-Anhalt, Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania); (3) With the exception of mid-November, late December and late January, 10.8% of the MPZ (the blue area in Fig. 2.6a) received above-average precipitation during the observation period, with particular peaks of significantly above-average precipitation in early December. It mainly affected parts of central Italy, west-central Spain, south-western France (south of Aquitaine Limousin Poitou-Charentes, south-west of Languedoc-Roussillon Midi-Pyrenees); (4) above-average precipitation occurred in western France (Bretagne) and eastern France (eastern Auvergne Rhone-Alpes, eastern Bourgogne Franche-Comte, central Alsace Champagne-Ardenne Lorraine), southern, eastern and western UK (red areas in Fig. 2.6a), with the exception of early October, early December and late January. The countries with the most severe precipitation deficits were Germany (RAIN -12%), Italy (RAIN -9%), and France (RAIN -7%). The rainfall deficits in October have favoured the harvesting of autumn crops, but may also have delayed the germination of winter crops in northern Italy, northern Germany, and south-eastern Spain.

CropWatch agroclimatic indicators show that the MPZ experienced relatively mild weather (TEMP +1.6°C) with good light conditions (RADPAR +3%).  As shown in the spatial distribution of temperature profiles, except for early and mid-December and late January, temperatures were above average in almost all the MPZ during the monitoring period, particularly in mid and late October and in late December and early January, when temperatures were significantly above average. The relatively mild weather in the MPZ has resulted in very limited winter frost damage to winter crops, but at the same time, the lack of frost conditions may increase pest and disease pressure later in the season.

Due to favourable solar radiation and warmer-than-usual temperatures, the potential BIOMSS was 8% above average. Significant BIOMSS departures (-20% and less) occurred in the Northwest and Southeast of Italy, northeast Germany, east and northeast Spain, which was consistent with the above description of areas where precipitation deficits occurred. The average maximum VCI for the MPZ was only 0.90. The lowest VCI values also occurred in areas for which negative BIOMSS departures (-20% and less) were observed. More than 93% of arable land was cropped, which was 1% above the recent five-year average. Most uncropped arable land was concentrated in Spain and northwestern Italy, with patchy distribution in south-eastern and south-western France, and other countries. The VHI minimum map shows that north-west Italy, south-western France, east and northeast Spain were most affected by drought conditions, which is consistent with continuous rainfall deficits in these countries during the monitoring period.

Generally, crop conditions were above average or close to average in most parts of this MPZ.

Figure 2.5 Western Europe MPZ: Agroclimatic and agronomic indicators, October 2022-January 2023

a. Spatial distribution of rainfall profiles                    b. Profiles of rainfall departure from average (mm)

c. Spatial distribution of temperature profiles           d. Profiles of temperature departure from average(°C)

e. Maximum VCI

f. Cropped and uncropped arable land

g. Biomass accumulation potential departure

h. VHI minimum