During the period from October 2022 to January 2023, the wheat harvest was completed. Soybean, first-season maize, and rice in central-southern Brazil reached peak vegetation cover by the end of the monitoring period. Rice planting began in northern Brazil at the end of January.
Only 12% of Brazil's cropland is irrigated, and agroclimatic conditions play a critical role in the growth of most crops. Overall, Brazil's prolonged dry and warmer-than-normal weather hampered the development of the 2022-2023 summer crop, resulting in slightly below-average crop conditions, particularly for the first season of maize. During the observation period, Brazil received an average rainfall of 464 mm, almost 50% below the 15YA, the largest negative departure in the last three years. Rainfall profiles showed that precipitation was below 2021-2022 and the 15YA throughout the four-month period. Although radiation was at close to average levels (1% below average), the significant below-average rainfall combined with 1.0°C higher temperature adversely affected crops as reflected by the 23% below average BIOMSS indicator. Spatially, most regions in central and southern Brazil had below-average BIOMSS, which was consistent with the map of the three-month composite SPI during November 2022 to January 2023. In contrast, BIOMSS was above average in the eastern coastal regions, northern Brazil and eastern Santa Catarina. Among the nine main agricultural producing states, only Santa Catarina received 5% above average rainfall, while all the other eight states suffered from a rainfall deficit with a more than 28% negative rainfall deviation from the 15YA. Temperature was slightly below average in three southern Brazilian states (Parana, Rio Grande Do Sul and Santa Catarina), but above average in the other six major agricultural producing states. Radiation was generally close to average, ranging from 5% below average in Goias to 4% above in Santa Catarina. Unfavorable weather conditions resulted in below average BIOMSS in all nine major agricultural producing states.
Significant water deficit affected crop growth, resulting in slightly below-average NDVI values since October 2022, as shown in the crop condition evolution graph. The spatial distribution of the NDVI deviation from 5YA and the corresponding profiles further illustrated the variable crop condition across Brazil. Crops with above-average condition were mostly observed along the Parana River Basin, covering western Parana, southwestern Sao Paulo, and southeastern Mato Grosso do Sul, where second season maize and soybean are dominant crops. Southern Brazil, including Rio Grande Do Sul and southern Santa Catarina, had a below-average NDVI, where rice and first-season maize dominate agricultural practices. Accordingly, the VCIx map also shows low values (< 0.8) in southern Brazil and high values (close to or above 1.0) along the Parana River basin. Although rainfall was well below average in the Parana River Basin in Brazil, crops showed above average conditions due to favorable soil moisture, which could be attributed to irrigation infrastructure and water accessibility. Conditions in other major agricultural regions were mixed but generally close to average. At the national level, the VCIx was 0.93. CALF was 1% above the 5YA, indicating an overall limited impact of the dry weather on crop planting.

In general, crop conditions in Brazil at the end of the observation period were slightly below average, but with great spatial and temporal variability. The Crop Production Index (CPI) in Brazil is 1.12, reflecting an overall above-average crop outlook. First-season maize production is forecast to be below average. Production of second season maize and soybean is forecast to be above average due to an increase in planted area.

Regional analysis

Eight agro-ecological zones (AEZ) are identified for Brazil, taking into account differences in cropping systems, climatic zones and topographic conditions. This Bulletin focuses on the Central Savanna (31), the East Coast (32), the Mato Grosso Zone (34), the Nordeste (35), the Parana River (36), and the Southern Subtropical Rangelands (37). All AEZs received significantly below-average precipitation (-13% to -81%) and above-average temperature. In the Central Savanna, temperature was 2.7°C above 15YA, the largest temperature anomaly among the AEZs. PAR was generally close to average, ranging from 4% below to 3% above average. The generally dry and warm weather for the AEZs resulted in below average BIOMSS (-5% to -45%), except for the East Coast where BIOMSS was 4% above 15YA.
Among the AEZs, crop condition in Southern Subtropical Rangelands was well below average with the lowest CPI (0.9) and VCIx (0.74) values compared to other AEZs. According to NDVI profiles, crop growth conditions in Southern Subtropical Rangelands were below average throughout the monitoring period. Rainfall deficits resulted in unfavorable soil moisture for crops, which reduced rice and soybean yields in the region.

The East Coast AEZ also showed below-average crop conditions, as reflected in the NDVI-based crop development profile. From an agroclimatic perspective, conditions were unfavorable due to a lack of rainfall (-13%) and above-average temperatures. However, the total area planted in the region was 3% above average according to the CALF indicator. Overall, the production outlook for the AEZ is above average with a CPI value of 1.17.

Mato Grosso, as the main maize and soybean producing zone, experienced significant negative rainfall departures, especially in November to early December 2022. Although the dry and hot weather resulted in unfavorable crop growth conditions as presented in the NDVI-based crop development profile, the spatial differences exist due to the variation in cropping practices and management. The northern part of the AEZ showed favorable soil moisture and above average crop conditions, while the southeastern part had poor surface soil moisture and below average conditions. The average VCIx was 0.94 and the CPI was 1.15, reflecting an overall favorable outlook for summer crops. This can be attributed to partial irrigation and near average rainfall in late December 2022 to early January 2023, which alleviated water stress.

The Central Savanna and the Parana Basin are the main production areas for maize and soybeans. Although below-average rainfall was observed in both regions, overall crop condition was close to or above average by the end of the monitoring period, as indicated by the VCIx map. The average VCIx for the two AEZs was 0.96 and 0.92, respectively. According to the NDVI-based crop development profiles, crop conditions were below average before mid-December 2022, but caught up to average conditions thereafter. While rainfall was all below average, soil moisture was normal and replenished by irrigation, which benefited crops, especially second maize and soybeans. The CPI values for the two AEZs were 1.20 and 1.11, respectively, confirming favorable prospects for summer crop production.

Similar to other AEZs, the Nordeste is dominated by dry and hot weather. Being a semi-arid climate zone, it received the lowest rainfall of the eight zones, only 128 mm. Nevertheless, the NDVI-based crop development profiles show above-average growth conditions, making it the only AEZ with above-average conditions throughout the monitoring period. Comparing the SPI map and soil moisture, regions suffering from meteorological drought with low SPI values were observed with high surface soil moisture. This indicates that most crops are irrigated. Irrigation resulted in the highest VCIx values for this zone compared to others. CALF reached 97%, which is 18% above the 5YA. Overall, the CPI value of the AEZ was 1.39, indicating a favorable production outlook.
For more indicators and detailed information, please visit CropWatch Explore (http://cropwatch.com.cn/newcropwatch/main.htm).

Figure 3.5 Brazil's crop condition, October 2022 - January 2023

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Maximum VCI

(c) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Brazil

(d) Spatial distribution of NDVI departure clusters and NDVI departure profiles corresponding to the clusters

(e) Potential biomass departure from 15YA          

(f) Meteorological drought measured by standard precipitation index

(g) Surface (0-5cm) soil moisture at 10th February, 2023

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Central Savanna

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Coast zone

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Mato Grosso

(k) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Nordeste

(L) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Parana basin

(m) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (left) and rainfall profile (right) of Southern subtropical rangelands

Table 3.14  Brazil’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, October 2022 – January 2023

Table 3.15  Brazil’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, October 2022 – January 2023