The current CropWatch bulletin describes world-wide crop conditions and food production as appraised by data up to the end of January 2023. It is prepared by an international team coordinated by the Aerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences.
The assessment is based mainly on remotely sensed data. It covers prevailing agri-climatic conditions, including extreme factors, at different spatial scales, starting with global patterns in Chapter 1. Chapter 2 focuses on agroclimatic and agronomic conditions in major production zones in all continents. Chapter 3 covers the major agricultural countries that, together, make up at least 80% of production and exports (the "core countries") while chapter 4 zooms into China. Special attention is paid to the production outlook of main crop producing and exporting countries where major cereal and oil crops (maize, rice, wheat and soybean) are harvested this year or currently still in the field. Subsequent sections of Chapter 5 describe the global disasters that occurred from October 2022 to January 2023.
Agroclimatic conditions
Globally, 2022 was the sixth warmest year on record since 1880. Temperatures were above average in Europe and Asia, resulting in the second warmest year. A heat wave accompanied by drought reduced autumn grain crop production in most of Europe and Southern China. An early heat wave in northwest India, in which temperatures exceeded 35ºC in March, caused yield losses in wheat at regional scale.
During this monitoring period, a third consecutive year of La Niña conditions has caused a prolonged drought that keeps affecting East Africa. It reduced crop production, and livestock was also decimated due to a lack of water. La Niña also limited crop production in Argentina. Other climatic factors, exacerbated by climate change, have caused a severe rainfall deficit in all regions bordering the Mediterranean Sea. In that region, winter is the season with the highest precipitation. Hence, the drought will not only impact the production of cereals and legumes in the winter months. Low water levels in the reservoirs mean less water will be available for irrigation in the dry summer months. The rainfall situation is grave in the Maghreb, Levant, and the Caucasus, where the deficit exceeded 30%. Conditions were average in Central and Northern Europe and most of Russia’s crop production region. California and the Western states of the USA benefited from above-average rainfall, which helped to restore soil moisture to normal levels. Most of South and South-East Asia, Northern China, Australia, and New Zealand experienced average to above-average rainfall.
Global crop production situation
In the current monitoring period, the Crop Production Index (CPI) for global crop production had declined for the third consecutive year from 1.19 to 1.12, which is the second lowest level in the past 11 years. This is mainly due to heat and drought conditions in key production regions.
Maize: In the Southern Hemisphere, maize planting starts at the beginning of the rainy season in November and December. In Brazil, first season maize was sown in October. Sowing of the more important second season maize is starting in February, after the soybean harvest. Brazil and Argentina are the second and third largest maize exporters. The total maize production in Brazil is expected to reach 93.603 million tonnes, with an increase of 2.5%. In Argentina, rainfall conditions improved in January, and farmers planted a significant area of late-season maize. Its production is expected to be at 55.924 million tonnes, slightly increasing by 1.7%. For southern Africa, which is affected by slight rainfall deficits, production is generally estimated to be reduced by less than 5%, except in Mozambique, where production is estimated to increase by 9.1% due to a larger area planted. In Indonesia, production is forecasted to increase to 19.586 million tonnes (+2.3%).
Rice: Production in most countries in South and Southeast Asia is close to 2022 levels. Conditions were close to normal in most countries, except Cambodia, where a reduction of 2.2% is forecasted due to a lack of water. In the Philippines, an increase of 5.3% is estimated. In most other countries, the changes are less than 2%. Rice yield and cultivation areas in Brazil and Argentina have decreased slightly, with total rice production decreasing by 5.0% and 4.1%, respectively.
Wheat: This is the most important crop grown during the northern hemisphere's winter months. Severe rainfall deficits have affected Kansas and Oklahoma in the USA, the Maghreb, the Levant, Türkiye and the Caucasus. Conditions were generally favorable for sowing and crop establishment in all other major production zones. This covers most of Europe, South Asia and China. Wheat yields in Australia and Brazil benefitted from favorable weather conditions, whereas in Argentina, the drought caused a significant yield reduction.
Soybean: The soybean production of Brazil and Argentina is only second to that of the United States. CropWatch predicts that Brazil's soybean production will reach 105.178 million tonnes (+10.6%) due to an expansion of the cultivated area. The planted area of soybeans in Argentina had also increased, but drought occurred in the main soybean-producing areas, which delayed the soybean sowing period. Although rainfall returned to normal in January 2023 and the growth of late-planted soybeans improved, yields of the late-sown fields will be reduced. The national average soybean yield is expected to decrease by 5.7%, with a total production of 50.022 million tonnes (-3.4%).