The reporting period covers the main growth stages for early maize, early soybean, and rice, the planting of late maize and late soybean and the harvesting of wheat. Several indices show poor conditions for Argentina: negative anomalies of NDVI all along the period were observed in main AEZs, as well as generally low values of VCIx and surface soil moisture, and the lowest CPI values in the last ten years. In addition, a reduction of planted area (CALF) is observed in several AEZs.

For the whole country, three indices showed low variation compared to the 15 years average: rainfall showed a slight negative anomaly of -3 %, TEMP showed a slight positive anomaly of +0.5°, BIOMSS showed a -1 % negative anomaly. The other two indices showed strong reductions: CALF showed a -12 % negative anomaly and VCIx showed a value of 0.61. CPI for the country was 0.74, the lowest value in the last ten years.

For the whole country, the crop condition development graph based on NDVI showed NDVI values below the five years average during the entire reporting period. Values were lower than in the 2021-2022 growing season. In all AEZs, observed values were below average throughout the monitoring period. In particular, in Mesopotamia, the differences to the average values became larger during December and January. For the whole country, rainfall showed negative anomalies only during short periods, like at the beginning and end November and mid-December. Temperature showed variation between negative and positive anomalies, with the dominance of positive anomalies such as from mid-November to the beginning of December and at the end of January. 

Spatial distribution of NDVI profiles allowed for the clustering of the area into five classes. Three profiles showed a tendency of reduced NDVI along the reporting period. The orange profile showed near no anomaly during October and November and negative anomalies between -0.5 and -0.1 during December and January. This profile was observed in Center, South-West and North-West Pampas. The dark green profile showed negative anomalies around -0.1 during October and November, which were reduced by up to -0.15 in January. This profile was mainly located in West Pampas and East Subtropical Highlands. The red profile showed slight negative anomalies at the beginning of the reporting period and showed a strong reduction up to January where values near -0.3 were observed. This profile was located in Mesopotamia and North-West Humid Pampas. A stable profile with negative anomalies around -0.2 (light green) was observed in Center-East and North-East Pampas and Chaco. Finally, a profile with a positive tendency, showing values near -0.15 during October and the beginning of November and with nearly no anomaly in January (blue) was observed in South-East and Center-West Pampas.

VCIx showed very low values (lower than 0.5) in North and North-East Pampas, Chaco, East Subtropical Highlands and South Mesopotamia. Good conditions were only observed in part of West and South Pampas and South-West Subtropical Highlands.  

Surface soil moisture showed quite low values (less than 30 %) for almost all the agricultural areas of the country. Lower values were observed in Center and North-East Pampas, South Mesopotamia and South Subtropical Highlands. SPI index showed normal conditions for most of the Argentine agricultural area, with cases of moderate to severe drought in Center East Pampas and South Mesopotamia. Wet conditions based on SPI were observed in North-West Pampas and Subtropical Highlands.

Regional Analysis

CropWatch subdivides Argentina into eight agro-ecological zones (AEZ) based on cropping systems, climatic zones, and topography; they are identified by numbers on the NDVI departure cluster map. During this monitoring period, most crops were grown in the following four agro-ecological zones: Chaco (11), Mesopotamia (12), Humid Pampas (13), and Subtropical Highlands (17). The other agro-ecological zones are less relevant for this period. 

In Chaco and Subtropical Highlands main crops are soybean and maize. Main crops in Pampas and South Mesopotamia are soybean, maize and wheat, while in North Mesopotamia the main crop is rice.

Three of the AEZs showed negative anomalies in RAIN: Mesopotamia (-30 %), Chaco (-11%) and Pampas (-6%), while Subtropical Highlands showed a positive anomaly of +45 %. TEMP showed positive anomalies in Humid Pampas (+1.2°) and Mesopotamia (+0.1°) and negative anomalies in Subtropical Highlands (-0.4°) and Chaco (-0.3°). RADPAR showed negative anomalies in Subtropical Highlands (-4%) and Pampas (-1%), and positive anomalies in Mesopotamia (+2%) and Chaco (+1%).

BIOMSS showed negative anomalies in Mesopotamia (-11%), Chaco (-4%) and Humid Pampas (-2%), and positive anomalies in Subtropical Highlands (+5%). CALF showed negative anomalies in the four AEZs: Chaco (-31%), Subtropical Highlands (-25%), Humid Pampas (-9%) and Mesopotamia (-1%). VCIx showed poor conditions for all AEZs: Chaco (0.43), Subtropical Highlands (0.56), Humid Pampas (0.63) and Mesopotamia (0.62). For all AEZs also the CPI values for 2023 were the lowest in the last ten years. In particular, Chaco and Humid Pampas showed quite lower values than in other years.

Summary

Poor crop conditions have been observed in Argentina. The persistence of these conditions is reflected in some indices, such as negative anomalies in NDVI, low VCIx and low CALF, which were also observed during the last reporting period. These could have affected the final stages of wheat, where yield is defined, as well as the development of early maize, early soybean and rice. The observed drought conditions may have delayed the planting of soybean, rice and late maize, which may partially explain the negative NDVI anomalies. The return to normal rainfall conditions observed at the end of the period may improve conditions for late planted summer crops.

Figure 3.7 Argentina's crop condition, October 2022-January 2023

(a). Phenology of major crops

(b). Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Argentina)

(c). Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Humid Pampas)

(d). Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Chaco)

(e). Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Mesopotamia)

(f). Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Subtropical Highlands)

(g). Time series rainfall profile (Argentina)

(h). Time series temperature profile (Argentina)

(i). Spatial distribution of NDVI profiles

(j). Maximum VCI

(k). Surface soil moisture

(l). SPI

Table 3.6. Argentina’s agroclimatic indicators by sub‐national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, October 2022 – January 2023

Table 3.7. Argentina’s agronomic indicators by sub‐national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, October 2022 – January 2023