This monitoring period covers the maize harvest in October and the sowing as well as the growing period of winter wheat. Compared to the average of the last 15 years, RAIN was lower by 15%, TEMP was higher by 1.2°C and RADPAR was higher by 1%, resulting in a higher potential BIOMSS (+6%). Cropwatch's last monitoring results indicated that winter crop planting was favorable. The sharp drop in temperatures in mid-December may have had a negative impact on winter crops, but growing conditions improved with above-average temperatures and precipitation in January. NDVI in most periods of this monitoring was significantly lower, which was related to the ground covered by snow.

CALF was close to 100% and VCIx reached 0.86. Nearly all regions had VCIx values above 0.5. CPI was 0.98 indicating a normal crop growth outlook. 

In general, the agrometeorological and agronomic parameters indicate favorable conditions for the growth of winter crops in Poland during this monitoring period.

Regional analysis

Four agro-ecological zones (AEZ) are examined more closely below. They include the Northern oats and potatoes areas (the northern half of west Pomerania, eastern Pomerania and Warmia-Masuria), the Northern-central wheat and sugar-beet area (Kuyavia-Pomerania to the Baltic Sea), he Central rye and potatoes area (Lubusz to South Podlaskie and northern Lublin), and the Southern wheat and sugar-beet area from southern Lower Silesia to southern Lublin and Subcarpathia along the Czech and Slovak borders. The listed administrative units correspond to the Voivodeships.

Compared to the average of the same period of the last 15 years, RAIN and RADPAR were both lower in Northern oats and potatoes areas (RAIN -21%; RADPAR -6%) and Northern-central wheat and sugar-beet area (RAIN -22%; RADPAR -4%). However, with the higher TEMP (+1.2°C and +1.2°C), resulting in the higher estimated potential BIOMSS (+8% and +6%). CALF in the two zones were both close to 100% and VCIx reached 0.85. CPI were 1.00 and 1.02 respectively. Overall, crop conditions in these two regions were favorable.

In Central rye and potatoes area, RAIN was below average by 14%, TEMP was higher by 1.2°C, and RADPAR was close to the 15-year average (+1%), which resulted in higher potential BIOMSS (+5%). In addition, CALF was near 100%, and VCIx reached 0.85. CPI was 0.98. In general, crop growth conditions were normal.

Compared with the average of the last 15 years, RAIN was lower by 9% in Southern wheat and sugar-beet area, combined with higher TEMP (+1.2°C) and RADPAR (+9%). The resulting potential BIOMSS was above average by 6%. In this zone, CALF was 100% and VCIx was 0.88. CPI was 1.01. Crop conditions were favorable.

Figure 3.37 Poland's crop condition, October 2022 – January 2023

(a). Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

(c)  Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA(e) NDVI profiles

(f) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI, Northern oats and potatoes area (left) and Northern-central wheat and sugar beet area (right).

(g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI, Central rye and potatoes area (left) and Southern wheat and sugar beet area (right)

(h) Rainfall index                                                            (i) Temperature Index

Table 3.66 Poland agroclimatic indicators by agro-ecological region, current season's values and departure from 15YA, October 2022 - January 2023

Table 3.67 Poland agronomic indicators by agro-ecological region, current season's values and departure from 5YA, October 2022 - January 2023