Winter wheat, which was sown in October, is the major crop in the field during this monitoring period. The nationwide rainfall had increased compared to 15YA average (RAIN 338 mm; +20%). The temperature (TEMP 1.9°C; +1.1°C) increased but radiation (RADPAR 136 MJ/m^2;  -15%) decreased. Nearly all the arable land was cropped (CALF was 99%) and the maximum vegetation condition index (VCIx) was good (0.80). Weather based projected potential biomass was above average (+7%).

At the national level, NDVI was below average in October, and then close to the 5YA in November but declined in December, presumably due to snow cover. Crop condition in about 81.4% cropped area was above or close to the 5-year average, in agreement with the national VCIx map. According to the spatial distribution maps, although VCIx was satisfactory in most areas of the country (>0.8), there was an apparent drop of NDVI profiles in many areas from December to January.  Most likely, this is artifact was caused by snow cover. The crop production index (CPI) was 0.95 and not far from 1.0, and it might indicate a good prospect considering the sufficient rainfall during the past few months of this period.

Regional analysis

Based on the cropping system, climatic zones and topographic conditions, regional analyses for three agro-ecological zones (AEZs) are provided, including Northern Belarus (028, Vitebsk, the northern area of Grodno, Minsk and Mogilev), Central Belarus (027, Grodno, Minsk and Mogilev and Southern Belarus (029) which includes the southern halves of Brest and Gomel regions.

Northern Belarus (Vitebsk, northern area of Grodno, Minsk and Mogilev) had more rainfall (27%) and slightly increased temperature (+1.0°C) than average, but radiation had decreased (-19%). The BIOMSS is projected to increase by 6%. Agronomic indicators showed satisfactory values: 99% for CALF and 0.79 for VCIx. CPI value was 0.93. Crop condition is good.

In Central Belarus, the regions of Grodno, Minsk and Mogilev recorded higher rainfall (16%), slightly higher temperature (+1.2°C) and below average radiation (-14%). The BIOMSS is projected to increase by 8%. Nearly full cropped arable land (CALF at 98%) and a VCIx value of 0.81 with a CPI of 0.96 were observed. The overall situation was favorable for winter crops.

The Southern Belarus (southern halves of Brest and Gomel regions) experienced the same agro-climatic condition as Central area. Higher rainfall (12%), higher temperature (+1.0°C) and lower radiation (-12%) were recorded. The BIOMSS is projected to increase by 8%. Favorable agronomic indicators (CALF 98%, VCIx 0.82) were observed. CPI value was 0.93.  The conditions for winter wheat were favorable.

Figure 3.10 Belarus’s crop condition, October 2022- January 2023.

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

(c)  Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                   (e) NDVI profiles

(f)Rainfall time series 

 (g) Temperature time series

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (North Belarus)

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Central Belarus)

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (South-west Belarus)

Table 3.11 Belarus’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 15YA, October 2022- January 2023.

Table 3.12 Belarus’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values and departure from 5YA, October 2022- January 2023.