This reporting period includes the planting and vegetative growth of winter wheat, as well as the harvest of maize and rice in October. Crop conditions were close to average from October 2022 to January 2023.

Nationwide,  RAIN (-17%) and  RADPAR (-1%) were below average, whereas TEMP was above (+0.6°C) compared to the 15YA. Rainfall was below average in the Lower Indus river basin in south Punjab and Sind (-80%), Northern highland (-15%) and Northern Punjab (-54%).  Temperatures were above average in first two regions mentioned above. The combination of all the agro-climatic indicators resulted in a BIOMSS decrease by 14% compared to the 15YA.

At the national level,  heavy monsoon rains had caused flooding conditions during the previous monitoring period. NDVI of the flood affected crops was below average in October, when harvest of most of the summer crops started. NDVI of the wheat crop, which was sown in November, developed favorablly. Most of the Punjab and the lower Indus river basin, the two major wheat producing areas, had above-average conditions according to the spatial NDVI patterns and profiles from November. The drop in NDVI observed in January is probably an artifact, due to fog or cloud cover in the satellite images. The national average of VCIx was 0.98 and CALF increased by 4%. The Crop Production Index (CPI) in Pakistan is 0.99, reflecting an overall average crop outlook in this period.

Regional analysis

For a more detailed spatial analysis, CropWatch subdivides Pakistan into three agro-ecological regions based on geography and agro-climatic conditions:  the Lower Indus river basin in South Punjab and Sind (155)，the Northern highland (156) and the Northern Punjab (157) region. 

RAIN was sharply below average by 80%, while TEMP was above average by 0.3°C and RADPAR was on average in the Lower Indus river basin in south Punjab and Sind. BIOMSS was down by 26% as compared to the fifteen-year average. Heavy monsoon rains and flooding  in July and August resulted in poor crop conditions from October to November. During early stages of winter wheat growth, crop conditions based on NDVI development profiles were above average and exceeded the maximum value in December.  VCIx was lower than 0.5 in some of areas.  CALF was 70%, similar to the  average of the previous five years. The Crop Production Index (CPI) was 0.95. Crop conditions for winter wheat were average.

In the Northern highland region, RAIN (-15%) was below average, together with lower RADPAR (-2%) and higher TEMP (+0.9°C). As a result, estimated BIOMSS decreased by 6%. The NDVI development graph showed above-average crop conditions starting in November. VCIx was high at 0.93. CALF was at 53%, an increase over the five-year average by 13%. Crop prospects are good.

Northern Punjab is the main agricultural region in Pakistan. It recorded a below-average RAIN (-54%). TEMP departure was -0.1°C, and RADPAR was below average by 1%. The resulting BIOMSS decreased by 21% in this region. Crop condition assessed through NDVI based crop development profiles showed below average values in October due to heavy rainfall from July to August. It subsequently increased to above average in November, and above the maximum value in December.  VCIx was high at 0.89. The CALF reached 85%, which was 2% above the five-year average. Overall, the winter wheat production potential for the region is high, evidenced by a high CPI of 1.11. 

Figure 3.34 Pakistan crop condition, October 2022 - January 2023

a) Phenology of major crops

b) NDVI profile                                             c) Time series rainfall profile         

d) Maximum VCI

e)  Spatial NDVI pattern compared to 5 YA                       f) NDVI profile

g) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI and time series rainfall profile (Lower Indus river basin)

h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI and time series rainfall profile (Northern highland)

i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI and time series rainfall profile (Northern Punjab)

Table 3.57 Pakistan agroclimatic indicators by agro-ecological region, current season's value and departure, October 2022- January 2023

Table 3.58 Pakistan agronomic indicators by agro-ecological region, current season's value and departure, October 2022 - January 2023