CropWatch Cloud

Germany Main producing and exporting countries

作者: zhuweiwei wufm 编辑: qinxl

This monitoring period covers the late stages of sugar beets, which got harvested in October and November, and the sowing period of winter cereals which started in September. Adequate soil moisture, neither too wet nor too dry, is crucial for the germination and early establishment of the winter cereals, mostly wheat, barley and triticale. Based on the agroclimatic and agronomic indicators, the crop conditions in Germany were generally near average in most regions.

CropWatch agroclimatic indicators show that total precipitation was below average (RAIN, -12%), while both temperature (TEMP, +1.3°C) and radiation (RADPAR, +7%) were above the average of the past 15 years. As can be seen from the time series of the rainfall profile, Germany experienced below-average precipitation except for late December and mid-January. Most of the country experienced warmer conditions during the monitoring period, except for early and mid December, which were cooler than average. Late January was also slightly below average. Due to favorable light conditions and warmer-than-usual temperatures, the biomass accumulation potential (BIOMSS) increased by 7% at the nationwide level as compared to the 15YA. The precipitation deficit in October and November was good for summer crop harvesting in Germany, while the germination of the winter cereals may have been delayed in some parts of the country.

CropWatch agronomic indicators based on NDVI development graph at the national scale show that NDVI values were slightly below average in October and near the 5-year maximum level in early November. Subsequent drops in NDVI can be attributed to either fog, cloud cover or snow on the ground in December and Januray. These factors also caused large negative departures in the spatial NDVI profiles. These observations were also confirmed by VCI values in the spatial distribution of maximum VCI map. It reached 0.88 at the national scale. Crop production index (CPI) was 1.05, slightly higher than 1, further suggesting average crop conditions.

Overall, the agronomic and agroclimatic indicators show average conditions for most winter crops in Germany.

Regional analysis

Based on cropping systems, climatic zones, and topographic conditions, six sub-national agro-ecological regions are adopted for Germany. They include: the Wheat Zone of Schleswig-Holstein and the Baltic coast (56), Mixed Wheat and Sugar beet Zone of the Northwest (57), Central Wheat Zone of Saxony and Thuringia (55), Sparse Crop Area of the East-German Lake and Heathland area (54), Western Sparse Crop Area of the Rhenish Massif (59) and the Bavarian Plateau (58).

The large negative NDVI departures that were observed for all regions from November 2022 to January 2023 are artifacts, due to cloud cover, fog or snow.

Schleswig-Holstein and the Baltic coast is the major winter wheat zone of Germany. Compared to the past 15 years' average, the CropWatch agroclimatic indicators RAIN (-10%) was below average, while temperature (TEMP, +1.1°C) and radiation (RADPAR, +10%) were above average. Due to favorable precipitation and temperature during the germination of wheat, biomass (BIOMSS) was increased by 4%. As shown in the crop condition development graph based on NDVI, the values were below average except for early-November which was close to the 5-year average. The area had a high CALF (100%) as well as a favorable VCIx (0.87) indicating favorable crop prospects. CPI was 1.03. The crop production in this region is expected to be above average.

Wheat and sugar-beets are major crops in the Mixed wheat and sugar-beets zone of the north-west. RAIN (-13%) was significantly below average, while radiation (RADPAR, +14%) and temperature (TEMP, +1.2°C) were above average. Due to favorable precipitation and temperature during the germination of wheat, biomass (BIOMSS) was 6% above average. As shown in the crop condition development graph based on NDVI, the values were below average except for early-November which was close to the 5-year average. The area had a high CALF (100%) as well as a favorable VCIx (0.84). CPI was 0.99. The crop production in this region is expected to be below average.

The Central wheat zone of Saxony and Thuringia is another major winter wheat zone; The CropWatch agroclimatic indicators show that this region experienced a precipitation deficit (-19%) with warmer weather (TEMP, +1.3°C) and radiation above average (RADPAR, +8%) which led to above average biomass (BIOMSS, +4%). As shown in the crop condition development graph based on NDVI, the values were below average except in early-November and early-December. The area has a high CALF (100%) as well as a favorable VCIx (0.82). CPI was 0.95. The crop production in this region is expected to be slightly below average.

In the East-German Lake and Heathland Sparse Crop Area, significantly below-average precipitation was recorded (RAIN, -24%). Temperatures and radiation were both higher than average (TEMP, +1.2°C; RADPAR, +8%). As a result, BIOMSS is expected to increase by 4% as compared to the average. As shown in the crop condition development graph based on NDVI, the values were below average except in early November and late December. The area has a high CALF (100%) and the VCIx was 0.93 for this region. CPI was 1.12. The crop production in this region is expected to be above average.

The cropland in the Western sparse crop area of the Rhenish massif experienced below average rainfall (RAIN -1%) , while temperature (TEMP +1.5°C) and radiation (RADPAR, +8%) were above average, which led to a biomass (BIOMSS) increase by 13%. As shown in the crop condition development graph based on NDVI, the NDVI values and crop conditions were close to the 5-year average in October, then above 5-year maximum in early November, below average from mid-November to late January. The area had high CALF (100%) and a high VCIx (0.87). CPI was 1.03. The crop production in this region is expected to be above average.

A significant reduction in rainfall was recorded for the Bavarian Plateau (RAIN -11%), with above-average temperature (+1.5°C) and above-average radiation (RADPAR +8%). Compared to the fifteen-year average, BIOMSS increased by 13%. As shown in the crop condition development graph based on NDVI, the values were below average from mid-November to early December and late January, close to average from late September to October and close to 5-year maximum in early November. The area had a high CALF (100%) as well as a favorable VCIx (0.92). CPI was 1.09. The crop production in this region is expected to be above average.

Figure 3.13. Germany’s crop condition, October 2022 - January 2023

(a) Phenology of major crops in Germany

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI, comparing the October 2022 - January 2023 period to the previous season and the five-year average (5YA) and maximum

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns for Germany up to January 2023 according to local cropping patterns and as compared to the 5YA (left) and (e) associated NDVI profiles (right)

(e) Time series rainfall profile (left) and temperature profile (right) of Germany comparing the October 2022 - January 2023 period to the previous season and the five-year average (5YA) and maximum