During this monitoring period, winter wheat, barley, and legumes are Morocco's main crops. Winter wheat sowing started in November and was completed in December. The CropWatch agro-climatic indicators showed that rain was 28% below the 15-year (15YA) average. According to the rainfall profile, high rainfall >20 mm, fell in early and mid-Decemper. The temperature was 1°C above the 15YA.  The RADPAR was only 0.3% above the 15YA while the BIOMSS was  19% below the 15YA. The nationwide NDVI profile was below last year's and the 5YA across the study period. It trended even below last year's curve. It had surpassed it only in late January. Generally, the NDVI spatial pattern shows that only 13.1% of the cultivated area was above the 5YA across the study period and the rest (86.9%) was below the 5YA. Cereal production in Morocco is heavily dependent on rainfall since only 15% of the country's cropland is irrigated. The nationwide crop production index (CPI) was at 0.88 implying below normal crop production situation. The country's VCIx value was 0.60, and the CALF was below the 5YA by 17%. Generally, crop conditions were poor due to the severe rainfall deficit.

Regional analysis

CropWatch adopts three agroecological zones (AEZs) relevant to crop production in Morocco: The Sub-humid northern highlands, the Warm semiarid zone, and the Warm sub-humid zone. All agro-climatic indicators measured for these three AEZs show nearly the same patterns. The rainfall for the three zones was 22%, 39%, and 23% below the 15YA. The temperature was 0.8°C above the 15YA for the first zone and 0.9°C above for the second and third zones. The RADPAR was above the 15YA by 1% in the first and second zones while it was at the 15YA in the third zone. The BIOMSS was below the 15YA by 15%, 20%, and 16% for the three zones. In the three zones, the crop conditions based on the NDVI graph trended below the 5YA following the nationwide NDVI profile. In three zones, the CPI was at 0.57, 0.89, and 1.03, respectively, implying below normal crop production situation in the first and second zones and normal crop production situation in the third zone. The  CALF was below the  5YA by 30%, 18%, and 13%, and the maximum VCI was at 0.59, 0.53, and 0.70 in the three zones.

Figure 3.28 Morocco’s crop condition, October 2022 - January 2023

(a). Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI(c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA(e) NDVI profiles

(f) crop condition development graph based on NDVI, Sub-humid northern highlands, and (g) Warm semiarid zones

(h) crop condition development graph based on NDVI, Warm subhumid zones

(i) Time series profile of rainfall （j)Time series profile of temperature

Table 3.49 Morocco’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values, and departure from 15YA, October 2022 - January 2023

Table 3.50 Morocco’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season’s values, and departure from 5YA, October 2022 - January 2023