October is the harvesting season for maize and rice in Türkiye. Wheat planting also starts in October and is completed in November. During the observation period, NDVI trended below the 5YA, although it increased to above-average levels in January. The country has experienced a prolonged, multi-year period with severe precipitation deficits and reservoirs around the country's major cities have reached record-low levels. The great earthquake in Türkiye occurred after this monitoring period, and the impact of the earthquake will be the focus of the next monitoring period.

Nationally, the average temperature (TEMP +1.6ºC) and photosynthetically active radiation (PADPAR +4%) were above the 15YA. The potential cumulative biomass (BIOMSS) was 23% lower due to low rainfall. The Cropped Arable Land Fraction (CALF) was 3% below average, and the country's Optimum Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) was 0.75. The country's Crop Production Index (CPI) was 1.02, which was about average.

The spatial distribution map of NDVI is similar to that of VCI, with NDVI close to or slightly above average in 16.3% of the cultivated area (marked by the blue line), mainly in the eastern region. The NDVI was below average (marked by the yellow line) in 40.4% of the areas, mainly in the central region. It is worth noting that the NDVI trend line at the national level showed a clear upward trend in January compared to the average level. However, this may be due to the fact that in other years, wheat may have entered winter dormancy due to freezing conditions. However, this January was milder than usual. Overall, the large precipitation deficit indicates unfavorable prospects for winter wheat production.

Regional analysis

Türkiye includes four agro-ecological regions: the Black Sea region (191), the Central Anatolia region (192), the Eastern Anatolia region (193) and the Marmara, Aegean, and Mediterranean regions (194).

NDVI in the Black Sea region was below average in November and December and above average in January. Photosynthetically Active Radiation (PADPAR) was 2% above average, mean temperature (TEMP) was 0.3°C higher, precipitation (RAIN) was 41% lower and final potential biomass (BIOMSS) was 20% lower. The Optimum Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) was 0.91, the Cropped Arable Land Fraction (CALF) was 3% higher than average and the Crop Production Index (CPI) was 1.18, indicating slightly higher than average crop production potential in the region.

NDVI in the Central Anatolia region was below average in the early part of the observation period and significantly above average in January, even reaching a 5-year maximum. Photosynthetically Active Radiation (PADPAR) was 3% higher, mean temperature (TEMP) 1.4°C higher, rainfall (RAIN) 47% lower and potential biomass (BIOMSS) 25% lower than the regional average. Cultivated Land Area (CLAF) was 3% higher, Optimum Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) was 0.71 and Crop Production Index (CPI) was 1.03. The precipitation deficit indicates that conditions were unfavorable.

Crop growth in the Eastern Anatolia region was below average in October and November and well above average in January, reaching a 5-year maximum. Regional rainfall (RAIN) was 56% lower, mean temperature (TEMP) 1.9°C higher, photosynthetically active radiation (PADPAR) 5% higher and potential biomass (BIOMSS) 22% lower than average. The Cropped Arable Land Fraction (CLAF) was significantly lower (-17%), the Optimum Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) was 0.76 and the Crop Production Index (CPI) was 0.98. Similar to Central Anatolia, the large precipitation deficit indicates that prospects for winter wheat are rather unfavorable.

The NDVI in the Marmara, Aegean and Mediterranean regions was slightly below average throughout the observation period, but close to average in January. Precipitation (RAIN) was 43% below average, photosynthetically active radiation (PADPAR) was 5% above average, mean temperature (TEMP) was 2.1°C higher and potential biomass (BIOMSS) was 22% lower. The Cropped Arable Land Fraction (CALF) was 4% lower. The optimum vegetation condition index (VCI) was 0.76 and the crop production index (CPI) was 1.02, and the crop production situation was expected to be below average.

Figure 3.42 Türkiye’s crop condition, October 2022 - January 2023

Table 3.76 Türkiye’s agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, October 2022 - January 2023

Table 3.77 Türkiye’s agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, October 2022 - January 2023