5.2 CropWatch food production estimates

Production estimates

In order to ensure the accuracy of crop yield forecasting, this bulletin focuses on the major food producing countries in the equatorial region and the southern hemisphere, as well as forecasts the summer crop yields of a few countries in the northern hemisphere (e.g., Pakistan and India).

The CropWatch system for estimating crop yields mainly uses remote sensing data as the primary data source for agricultural producing countries, and combines ground-based measurement, crop masks, and statistical data from some foreign countries. The calibration of the yield prediction model is carried out separately for different crops (Table 5.1). Based on vegetation indices and cultivated land ratios of different crop masks, the system monitors the annual variations in crop yield and cultivated area, and predicts the yield for the current year by combining with the previous year's production.

Table 5.1 2023 cereal and soybean production estimates in thousand tonnes. Δ is the percentage of change of 2023 production when compared with corresponding 2022 values.

Maize: The predicted maize production of 10 major producing countries is listed in Table 5.1, including the second and third largest exporters (i.e., Brazil and Argentina). The total maize production of these 10 countries accounts for approximately 20% of global production. Due to the impact of persistent drought, the first maize production in central and southern Brazil has been reduced to 22.169 million tonnes by 3.5% on the basis of the 2021-2022. The second maize received rainfall close to the average in crop growth period, and irrigation in some areas ensured an increase of 4.5% second maize production. The total maize production in Brazil is expected to reach 93.603 million tonnes with an increase of 2.5%. In Argentina, continuous dry weather in the past four months has led to delayed sowing of autumn crops and poor growth conditions of early-planted maize. Some farmers are still rushing to plant maize since the significant increase in rainfall since January 2023. The improvement in rainfall will be favorable for the growth and development of late-planted maize. The maize production in Argentina is expected to be 55.924 million tonnes with a slight increase of 1.7%.

Drought has also spread to the major maize-producing countries in Africa. Among them, South Africa is the most severely affected by the drought, with rainfall in its maize-producing areas more than 40% below normal, resulting in a decrease in both maize yield and planting area, and a 4.1% decrease in total maize production. Kenya and Angola experienced continuous drought before and after maize planting, resulting in a 6.5% and 2.4% decrease in production, respectively. Slight drought also occurred in Mozambique's main maize-producing areas, resulting in a slight decrease in maize yield, but the increase in maize cultivation area offset the impact of the decrease in yield, resulting in a significant increase of 9.1% in total maize production. Indonesia had sufficient rainfall, providing adequate moisture for maize production, and total maize production increased to 19.586 million tonnes (+2.3%). Despite some areas alleviating the impact of drought through irrigation, the total maize production in Mexico's main maize-producing areas in the northwest was still 6.8% lower than in 2021-2022 due to persistent low rainfall. Maize production in Bangladesh and Zambia remained similar to the previous year.

Rice: The rice production forecast in this bulletin mainly covers the major rice-producing countries in South and Southeast Asia, including 12 major rice-producing countries. The rice production of the monitored countries accounts for 35% of the global production, and the overall production is expected to decrease slightly by 0.1%. Rice production in most countries in South and Southeast Asia is close to 2022. The rice cultivation area in Bangladesh has decreased compared to the 2021-2022, resulting in a 4.5% decrease in total rice production, while the agro-climatic conditions in the Philippines are generally better than last year, and rice production is expected to increase by 5.3%. There are significant differences in the growth conditions of drought-season rice in the Mekong sub-region countries. Cambodia is expected to experience a significant decline in drought-season rice production, with a decrease of 2.2% in whole country, while Thailand is expected to experience a slight increase in drought-season rice production, with a total rice production increase of 0.6%. The changes in rice production in Indonesia, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, and Vietnam are all less than 2%. Rice yield and cultivation area in Brazil and Argentina have both decreased slightly, with total rice production decreasing by 5.0% and 4.1%, respectively.

Wheat: Wheat completed harvesting in Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Ethiopia, South Africa, and Zambia in the southern hemisphere in 2022. This bulletin focuses on wheat-producing countries in tropical and subtropical regions, including Egypt, Morocco, India, Pakistan, and Mexico. Compared to 2021-2022, agro-climatic conditions in Morocco have improved significantly, leading to a recovery in both wheat yield and cultivation area, and total production has increased significantly to 7.917 million tonnes (+30.9%), but still significantly lower than the high-yield year in 2020-2021. The agro-climatic conditions in the wheat production areas in northern Mexico are better than the national average, with an increase in wheat planting area, leading to a 3.1% increase in wheat production. Wheat planting mostly adopts irrigation measures in Egypt, India, and Pakistan, with relatively small changes in wheat yield. Remote sensing data shows that the wheat planting area has decreased slightly in India and Pakistan, while that in Egypt has increased, and it is expected that wheat production in Pakistan and India will decrease by 3.2% and 0.7%, respectively, and wheat production in Egypt will increase by 0.8%.

Soybean: The soybean production of Brazil and Argentina is only second to that of the United States. CropWatch predicts that Brazil's soybean production will increase significantly to reach 105.178 million tonnes (+ 10.6%), with the main reason being the expansion of soybean cultivation area. The planted area of soybeans in Argentina has also increased, but drought occurred in the main soybean producing areas, which led to a delay in the soybean sowing period. Although rainfall returned to normal in January 2023 and the growth of late-planted soybeans improved, the delay in the phenological period will affect the yield of late-planted soybeans, and it is expected that the national average soybean yield will decrease by 5.7%, with a total production decrease to 50.022 million tonnes (-3.4%).