Kenya experiences two rainy seasons. The long rains last from March to late May and the short rains from late October to December. Maize is sown during long and short rains, while wheat is sown only during long rains. This report for the monitoring period October 2022 to January 2023 covers the short rain season and the harvest of wheat and long rain maize.

At the national scale, Kenya is in drought. The precipitation was 281 mm, 30% below average. According to the national rainfall profiles, the 10-day cumulative rainfall was below the 15YA in almost all decades, apart from late November and early December. When looking into sub-national level, all regions received less rainfall, and the Southwest region had the largest negative departure in rainfall compared with the 15YA (RAIN -82%). Due to this condition, the BIOMSS was 14% lower than average and maximum VCI was only 0.75. 

The NDVI development graph at the national level shows that NDVI values were all below 5YA, especially in late October and early November. It can be noticed that the sowing of maize in the short rainy season was delayed. Based on the NDVI clusters and the corresponding NDVI departure profiles, the western and central parts of Kenya (red area), which account for 45.1% of the country's cultivated land, had near-average NDVI values, while other areas show significant deviations in crop growth. This is consistent with the maximum VCI map, which shows a relatively low VCI of less than 0.5 (red area) in the southern region. In general, all crops in Kenya were affected by the drought, although to a slightly lesser extent in western and central Kenya.

Regional analysis

Based on cropping systems, climatic zones, and topographic conditions, four sub-national agro-ecological regions can be distinguished for kenya: the Eastern coastal region (113), the Highland agriculture zone (114) and Northern region (115) and the Southwest region (116).

The Eastern coastal region had the smallest negative deviation in rainfall (-21%), 0.1°C below average temperature and 2% above average RADPAR. The Crop Production Index was 0.61 and the maximum VCIx value is 0.59. The poor CPI and VCIx indicate poor crop growth in this region during monitoring period. Lack of rainfall resulted in a 6% decrease in BIOMSS and a significant decrease in NDVI from October to January compared to the 5YA. This indicates that sowing of maize in the short rainy season was delayed. Overall, the crop condition was unfavorable in the coastal area with poor prospect for livestock and crop production.

The Highland agriculture zone recorded 305 mm of rain, which was below the 15YA by 24%. The low precipitation resulted in significant reductions in biomass (-12%). The maximum VCI value recorded was 0.76. The NDVI was below the 5YA, especially in November. And the CALF was reduced to 93% (-5%). This means that the sowing of short rain maize was affected. Overall, crop growth has been severely affected by drought conditions, especially in November.

In the Northern region, the precipitation was much lower than average at 262 mm, a reduction of 28%. Temperature was close to the 15YA (+0.3°C), whereas RADPAR was lightly above average (+1%), BIOMSS was below average (-8%). The maximum VCIx value (0.53) is the lowest in the four AEZs in Kenya and the Crop Production Index was 0.61. The low values of these two indices indicate that the crops in the area are not growing well. In addition, the NDVI development graph shows that the NDVI values were significantly below average, especially in October. This illustrates that the short rainy season maize sowing was affected by the drought. Furthermore, the CALF was reduced to 60% (-29%). All in all, the situation of crop growth in this area was unfavorable.

The Southwest region includes the districts Narok, Kajiado, Kisumu, Nakuru, and Embu, which have the largest negative departure in RAIN (-82%). The following indicator values were observed: TEMP 20.6°C (+0.4°C); RADPAR (-3%); CPI (1.00) and BIOMSS (-44%). Despite the large variation in precipitation, its CALF and was unchanged and the NDVI values were close to the 5YA. The VCIx value was 0.85, which is the highest in the four AEZs in Kenya. In conclusion, despite of the severely dry conditions, crop growth seems to have been less affected by the drought than in other regions thanks to the irrigation infrastructure in the AEZ.

Figure 3.24 Kenya's crop condition, October 2022-January 2023

(a). Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI                       (c) Maximum VCI

(d) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA                                          (e) NDVI profiles

(f) Time series rainfall                                                                               (g) Time series temperature

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI, The eastern coastal region(left), The Highland agriculture zone(right)

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI, the northern region with sparse vegetation (left), South-west (right)

Table 3.40 Kenya's agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA,October 2022-January 2023

Table 3.41 Kenya's agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure, October 2022-January 2023