During this reporting period, the sowing of maize continued until December. Harvest of maize that was sown in September started in January. The main rice was also harvested during this period, whereas the second rice was sown from November to December. Sowing of wheat also took place during this monitoring period. 

According to the agroclimatic indicators from the last few periods, as well as this one, the weather in Myanmar tended to be drier than the 15YA. Compared to the 15YA, RAIN was lower (-28%) while TEMP was higher (+0.4ºC) and RADPAR was up by 5%. As a result of the rainfall deficit, BIOMSS was markedly below the average (-14%). The cropland was near fully utilized, unchanged from the 5YA. NDVI values were slightly below-average during the whole monitoring period. The maximum VCI during this period was 0.88. The CPI value was 1.06, which represents a slightly below-average agricultural production situation.

As shown by the NDVI clusters map and profiles, the crop conditions across the country ranged from average to below average. More than 50% of the country’s cropland showed near-average crop conditions during the whole period. It was mainly distributed in the Central Plain and some clustered areas throughout the country.  Another 11.5% of the cropland, located in Bago, Yangon and Ayeyarwady,  showed negative NDVI departure values in October and November, but was slightly above-average thereafter. 29.9% of the country’s cropland, which was distributed around the Central Plain, was below average during the entire period. The maximum VCI map showed similar distribution as the NDVI cluster map.  According to the CropWatch monitoring results, crop conditions were slightly below average. 

Regional analysis

Three sub-national agro-ecological zones (AEZ) can be distinguished for Myanmar based on the cropping system, climatic zones and topographic conditions. They are the Central plain (132), the Hills (134) and the Delta and Southern Coast regions (133).

The Central Plain had a marked rainfall deficit (RAIN -45%), and RADPAR and TEMP were up by 6% and 0.9ºC compared to the 15YA. BIOMSS was 20% lower than the 15YA. CALF showed that 98% of the cropland was fully utilized. NDVI was near the level of the 5YA for the period. The VCIx was 0.89. The CPI was 1.14. Crop conditions for this region were slightly below average.

The Hills region also had below-average rainfall (RAIN -29%). RADPAR and TEMP increased by 7% and 0.2ºC. BIOMSS was 17% lower than the 15YA. The cropland was almost fully utilized (CALF 98%). The NDVI values were similar to that of the whole country. The VCIx was 0.88. The CPI was 1.05. Crop conditions are assessed as below the 5YA level.

The Delta and Southern Coast region had the highest RAIN compared with the other two sub-national regions, though it was also below the 15YA (-10%). RADPAR and TEMP were 1% and 0.1ºC above average. BIOMSS was almost comparable to the 15YA. The cropland was also close to fully utilized (CALF 98%). The NDVI values were apparently below the 5YA during October and November, and on average in December and January. VCIx was 0.88. The CPI was 1.06. Crop conditions in this region were below average.

Figure 3.30 Myanmar crop condition, October 2022– January 2023

(a) Phenology of major crops

(b)  Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

(c)  Maximum VCI

(d)  Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA  (e) NDVI profiles

(f)  Rainfall Profile

(g) Temperature Profile

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Central plain region (left) and Hills region (right))

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Delta and Southern Coast region)

Table 3.51 Myanmar agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, October 2022– January 2023

 Table 3.52 Myanmar agroclimatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, October 2022– January 2023