5.2. Disaster events 灾害事件

Introduction 引言

According to a recent World Bank study (Hallegatte et al, 2017), economic losses from natural disasters totaled US$92 billion in 2015, mostly in the building, infrastructure and agricultural production sectors. Disaster impact assessments, however, and typically those issued by insurance and reinsurance companies, mostly focus on insured losses, that is, those losses incurred by people rich enough to have assets to lose in the first place; this largely ignores the impact on poor people, which are the majority. Poor people, including most of subsistence farmers, rarely appear in loss statistics as they have little more than their livelihoods and their lives to lose. Indeed, their losses may be smaller than those of wealthy people, but they lose a larger percentage of their belongings.

据世界银行最新研究报告(Hallegatte等, 2017)，2015年全球自然灾害造成的经济损失达920亿美元，主要涉及建筑、基础设施和农业部门。可是，保险公司和再保险公司提及的灾害损失主要针对保险业，主要保障富人的财产损失，很大程度上忽略了大多数穷人的损失。穷人（包括大部分自给自足的农民）很少出现在损失统计中，因为他们只能维持生活，没有多余的资金去购买保险。虽然在灾害事件中穷人的损失量小，但损失量占比大。

For many people, a disaster is the beginning of the poverty spiral, as assets—such as farm tools and animals, often acquired over many years, are abruptly lost in one disaster event. For instance, there are indications that the losses to the livestock sector during the Sahelian droughts of the 1960s to mid-1980s are still not completely recovered from in terms of per capita meat and milk production. 

就大多数人而言，灾害与贫穷呈“螺旋”关系，如农场工具和牲畜等资产，通常需要多年来购置，但在一次灾害中可全部毁坏。又如，20世纪60-80年代，萨赫勒地区的旱灾对畜牧业造成深远影响，从人均肉类和奶制品产量来看，目前仍没有完全恢复到灾前水平。

The World Bank study found that the effect of disasters on well-being, measured in terms of lost consumption, is larger than asset losses. This results in long-term effects on health, education, ability to work productively and to restore pre-disaster conditions. It also precipitates many people into debt when assets had to be sold to survive. Therefore, the report estimates that impact on well-being in affected countries is equivalent to consumption losses that far exceed direct impact losses and reach about US$520 billion a year, far larger than any earlier estimates. 

世界银行研究报告发现，以减少的消费来衡量，灾害对幸福感的影响大于其造成的财产损失，灾害对人类健康、教育、工作效率和灾后恢复产生长期影响，也促使许多人不得不变卖家产来维持生活，造成负债累累。因此，该报告得出：对受灾国家人类幸福感的影响等同于消费减少，远超过直接损失量和以往的任何直接损失估计量，一年可达5200亿美元。

The report has many detailed examples about the mechanisms that bring about long-term impacts, as well as some solutions, including micro-credit and insurance (including crop insurance), as well as dedicated funds established by governments. 

该报告也列举一些详实案例，描述灾害的长期影响机制和可能的解决方法，如小额信贷和保险（包括农作物保险），以及由政府设立的专用基金。

Overview 概述

This section of the CropWatch bulletin provides an overview of disasters that occurred during the reporting period. It is sometimes based on early reports, as well as early impact assessments, as the full measure of impacts becomes available long after the impacting factor itself has subsided. The report also focuses on disasters that have the potential to directly affect agriculture, and this mostly covers vagaries of water supply and cold weather. Volcanic eruptions in non-agricultural areas, earthquakes and man-made disasters are thus mostly not mentioned, even if they have the potential to lead to long-term effects that are very comparable to those listed in the just mentioned World Bank report. Importantly, all disasters can be made worse by mismanagement as it often affects rescue operations. 

本部分概述在CropWatch通报监测期内全球发生的灾害事件，包括灾害早期预警、早期影响评估以及灾后全面评估。报告同样关注灾害对农业的潜在直接影响，变幻莫测的供水状况和寒冷天气。非农业区火山喷发、地震和人为疾病等灾害，尽管它们也可能带来长期影响，类似于上文提到的世界银行报告中的论述，但本文并未提及。重要的一点是，所有灾害都可能因管理不善而变得更糟，因为它经常影响救援行动。

The recent El Niño, which has led to misery in large regions worldwide, was the first occurrence of a large-scale geophysically caused disaster in many years, probably going back to the mid-1980s and the well-known Ethiopian droughts. Since then, the world has changed, and conflicts and many forms of civil and military unrest, including deliberate starvation of people and livestock, have replaced drought as one of the main causes of food insecurity (Hendrix and Brinkman, 2013; RCRC, 2008). Current disaster reports include information about man-made disasters from many locations, including the Democratic Republic of the Congo (Kasai), South Sudan, Yemen, Somalia, Nigeria (Borno state), Syria, Iraq, Myanmar, Bangladesh, Gambia, Mozambique, and Libya. In many cases, the difficult food situations are brought about by refugees from neighboring provinces or countries. Often, the impact of conflicts is compounded by environmental issues, whether linked to climate or the depletion of environmental resources, such as firewood, or unaffordable food prices. In many cases too, the precariousness and vulnerability drag on for years as populations never seem to be able to recover. A typical example is the impact of Hurricane Matthew in Haiti (see below), a country that has not recovered from the January 2010 earthquake, or the seemingly endless succession of aftershocks  that still occur now in the wake of the Gorkha earthquake of April 2015 in Nepal.

最近的厄尔尼诺现象已经带来世界范围的灾难，是多年来发生的第一次大规模地球物理灾害，上一次可能要追溯到20世纪80年代中期著名的埃塞俄比亚旱灾。自那时以来，世界已经发生了变化，冲突、各种民间骚乱和军事动乱时有发生，也包括蓄意饥饿，这些已经取代了旱灾成为威胁粮食安全的主要原因（Hendrix和Brinkman, 2013; RCRC, 2008）。目前的灾难报道包括许多国家的人为灾害，如刚果民主共和国卡塞河，南苏丹，也门，索马里，尼日利亚博尔诺州，叙利亚，伊拉克，缅甸，孟加拉，冈比亚，莫桑比克和利比亚。在许多情况下，邻近省份或国家的难民带来粮食困难。通常，冲突因环境问题加剧，是否与气候、环境资源的枯竭、或昂贵的粮食价格有关。在许多情况下，不稳定和脆弱性会持续多年，民众似乎永远无法恢复。一个典型的例子是：海地还没有从2010年1月地震中恢复过来，飓风“马修”已经赶到（见下文），类似于2015年4月尼泊尔廓尔喀地震后余震频发发生，灾害似乎永无止境。

The most significant disasters of the reporting period include floods in southeastern Africa (especially Mozambique) and Hurricane Matthew, which affected Haiti at the beginning of October.

本通报监测期内，最严重的灾害为非洲东南部的洪水（特别是莫桑比克）和十月初登陆海地的飓风“马修”。

Cyclones and storms 台风和暴雪

Hurricane Matthew (September 28-October 10, 2016) was one of the strongest and long-lived Atlantic cyclones in ten years, starting its trajectory off the Venezuelan coast and dissipating east of Canada. It crossed the Caribbean between Cuba and Haiti, which were the most severely affected developing countries (damages estimated at US$2.6 billion and US$1.9 billion, respectively). Total economic loss, including between US$5 and 8 billion in the United States) is currently put as about US$13 billion. In the Caribbean, the period coincides with the maize and rice harvests and the planting of the second maize crops. According to FAO, the most affected areas in Haiti have lost up to 100% of crops, and pastures to feed livestock have also been affected. The organization puts the total value of crop losses at US$360 million and damages to irrigation and fishing equipment at US$178 million. The final estimate by government and FAO puts annual crops losses due to Matthew at 116,000 tons of food, while also about 16,500 tons of food in stock was lost. Fruit losses until recovery are estimated at over 100 million tons. About 2 million birds, 500,000 goats, 163,000 pigs, 102,000 heads of cattle, 74,000 sheep and 23,000 horses were killed, which will affect protein availability for several years. In total, 1.4 million people, or 13% of Haiti’s population, were in need of food assistance at the beginning of October. In Cuba (Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas provinces) the impact was more limited; the production loss is estimated to reach 10,000 tons of maize, as the affected provinces represent a small fraction of total national maize and rice output. Horticultural crops, however, are deemed to have been more severely impacted, as were plantain and bananas. Plantain and bananas suffered as well from wind damage in several Caribbean islands. 

2016年9月28日-10月10日，飓风“马修”登陆美洲，是十年来威力最大的大西洋气旋之一，在委内瑞拉海岸出现，随后在加拿大东部消散，古巴和海地加勒比地区是受灾最严重的两个发展中国家，损失估计分别为26亿美元和19亿美元，另美国50至80亿美元，目前损失总计约为130亿美元。在加勒比地区，恰逢玉米和水稻的收割以及第二季玉米作物的种植时期。据联合国粮农组织FAO统计，海地受灾最严重的地区农作物损失已达100%，牧草也受到了严重影响；农作物损失总计为3.6亿美元，灌溉和渔业设备损失达了1.78亿美元。由当地政府和FAO联合给出最终结果：粮食年损失总量为11.6万吨，其中约有1.65万吨库存粮食；水果的损失量估计在1亿吨以上，约有200万只鸟、50万只山羊、16.3万头猪、10.2万头牛、7.4万只羊和2.3万匹马死亡，这将影响未来几年海地的可用蛋白质量；十月初，共有140万人（13%的海地人口）需要粮食援助。飓风“马修”在古巴（关塔那摩、奥尔金、和拉斯图纳斯省）的影响有限：玉米产量损失估计达到1万吨，受灾省份玉米和水稻产量占全国的比例较小；然而，园艺作物如芭蕉和香蕉，损失更严重；在几个加勒比岛屿，芭蕉和香蕉也遭受了飓风损害。

Typhoon Sarika (October 13-19, 2016) affected the Philippines (crop loss: 250,000 tons), South China, and Vietnam (provinces of Nghe An, Ha Tinh, Quang Tri, Thua Thien Hue, and Quang Binh), for a total estimated loss of US$760 million (of which US$680 in Hainan) and 34 fatalities (figure 5.1). The typhoon formed east of the Philippines where it made landfall in Quezon and moved west-northwest in the general direction of China’s Hainan province. A twin typhoon (Haima) developed between 14 and 26 October in the same general area, making landfall over northern Luzon in the Philippines and then progressing to China and eventually reaching Japan. The total damage is estimated at 18 casualties and US$1.93 billion damage, including US$70 million in the Philippines and more than US$1 billion in China. Precise impact estimates for the agricultural sector are still missing. In Guangdong, agricultural and economical losses were in excess of US$500 million. Just under 200,000 ha of crops were destroyed in Hainan (worth just over US$600 million), with more limited impacts in Fujian (200 hectares and an economic loss of US$5 million). 

2016年10月13-19日，台风“莎莉嘉”袭击菲律宾，农作物产量损失达25万吨。中国南方和越南部分地区（义安、河静、广治、承天-顺化、广平等）也受到波及，损失总量达7.6亿美元，其中海南损失达6.8亿美元，同时有34人死亡（图5.1）。台风形成与菲律宾东部，在奎松登陆，并向西北偏西移动，直指中国的海南省。在10月14至26日孪生台风“海马”在同一个地区形成，在菲律宾吕宋北部登陆，然后进入中国，最终抵达日本。共造成18人伤亡和19.3亿美元损失，其中菲律宾损失.7亿美元，中国损失超过10亿美元。农业部门仍没有给出中国的详细损失数据，在广东，农业和经济损失超过5亿美元；在海南，约有20万公顷的农作物被毁坏，价值超过了6亿美元；对福建的影响有限，200公顷农作物被毁，经济损失达500万美元。

Hurricane Otto affected Costa Rica, Nicaragua, and Panama between November 20 and 26 in 2016. Total damage is estimated at US$50 million. No specific agricultural impact assessments are available from FAO, but the damage to the sector was limited and certainly much less severe than the destruction brought about by Matthew. 

2016年11月20日-26日，台风“奥托”波及哥斯达黎加、尼加拉瓜和巴拿马。总损失估计为5000万美元。从FAO无法获取具体的农业损失评估数据，但农业损失有限，当然也远没有飓风“马修”造成的破坏严重。

Typhoon Nock Ten was the third cyclone that affected the Philippines this season. It lived from the 20th to the 28th of December and affected, next to the Philippines, Vietnam as well, with wind speeds reaching just short of 300 km/h in the early stages. Nearly 3 million people have been affected in Bicol region, Mimaropa, Calabarzon and Eastern Visayas, but casualties remained low and damage relatively contained (US$ 100 million), mostly comprising of about 200,000 tons of rice, maize, and some high value crops totaling US$90 million.

2016年11月20日-28日，本季节菲律宾的第三个气旋台风“洛坦”出现，早期阶段，到达临近的越南地区台风风速低于 300公里/小时。在比科尔语地区、民马罗巴、甲拉巴松和东米沙鄢群岛约有300人受影响，但伤亡人数较少，经济损失达1亿美元，包括水稻、玉米和一些主要的高价值作物在内的作物产量损失总计约20万吨，共计9000万美元。

At the end of January, about 20 people died in Georgia and Mississippi in the United States after multiple tornadoes rattled the region. In total, at least 62 tornadoes touched down across the states of Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Florida, and South Carolina from January 21 to 23.

2017年一月末，格鲁吉亚和美国密西西比州遭受多个龙卷风肆虐，约有20人死亡。从1月21日到23日，总计至少有62次龙卷风袭击了美国德克萨斯州、路易斯安那州、亚拉巴马州州、格鲁吉亚州、佛罗里达州州和南卡罗来纳州。

Excess rainfall and landslides 强降雨和山体滑坡

Abundant precipitation leading to floods have occurred on all continents, forcing people to evacuate and destroying homes and crops. Example of this are in Egypt (late October, killing 30), Indonesia (mid-November in Karawang, West Java), the Dominican Republic (mid-November, affecting several provinces with frequent landslides), and in central Vietnam (early December, with losses valued at more than US$309 million). In Argentina, a storm surge on December 26 caused flooding and heavy damage in the provinces of Buenos Aires and Rosario, with 10 towns still flooded in January. On January 9, floods affecting 13 provinces killed 19 people in the lower-central region and mostly the south of Thailand. Some days later (January 20 to 26), the Philippines were hit by floods and landslides that resulted in 9 deaths, mainly in Davao and northern Mindanao regions, affecting 1.5 million people; early estimates indicated that the cost of damage to agriculture is about US$1 million. 

各大洲，强降水导致了洪水泛滥，迫使人们远离家园，房屋和庄稼遭到严重损毁。十月下旬，埃及洪水造成30人死亡；十一月中旬，印度尼西亚加拉璜、西爪哇爆发洪水；十一月中旬，多米尼加共和国洪水导致多个省份山体滑坡频发；十二月初越南中部也遭受洪水侵袭，损失总计超过3.09亿美元。在阿根廷，12月26日的一次风暴潮造成的洪水，淹没了布宜诺斯艾利斯和罗萨里奥省，一月份仍有10个城镇仍然处于洪水浸泡中。1月9日，洪水袭击泰国13个省，造成中部南部地区共19人死亡。几天后，菲律宾达沃和棉兰老岛的北部地区遭受洪水和山体滑坡，造成9人死亡，受灾人口达150万；初步估计表明，农业损失约为100万美元。

The most severe and widespread floods are those that befell southern Africa, after a drought year brought about by El Niño and reported on in previous CropWatch bulletins. Countries affected include mostly Mozambique and Zimbabwe, and—to a lesser degree—Angola where 10,000 people were made homeless. The region is at the peak of its agricultural season, with cassava and maize being the main crops. Torrential rains started early in the month, and more than 600,000 people were affected by as much as 600 mm in one week (12 to 18 January) in Mozambique, while 44 people were killed, mostly in the provinces of Maputo, Gaza, Inhambane, and Nampula (figure 5.2). According to ACAPS, the Zambezi river burst its banks on January 24 in the central province of Sofala. Two million people are expected to be affected in Mozambique (IPC phase 3 level) . The floods occurred when about 1 million people were still receiving food assistance as a result of last year's drought and at a time the price of maize was already 20% to 100% (according to the market) above normal seasonal values. Many of the affected areas are semi-arid (especially in the south) and are not well prepared nor equipped for excess precipitation. Although thousands of hectares of crops have been lost, it is likely that the precipitation will benefit crop production at the national level.

在厄尔尼诺影响的干旱年后（前几期的CropWatch通报中有报道），非洲南部经历了最猛烈、波及范围最广的洪水冲击。受影响的国家主要包括莫桑比克和津巴布韦（对安哥拉影响较小，约有1万人无家可归）。该地区正处于农业旺季，主要农作物是木薯和玉米。暴雨开始于一月份，受灾人口超过60万；在莫桑比克，1月12-18日一周内降水量多达600毫米，44人死亡，主要发生在马普托，加沙，伊尼扬巴内和楠普拉省（图5.2）。根据ACAPS组织报告，1月24日赞比西流域中部的索法拉省决堤。莫桑比克二百万人遭受洪灾（达到IPC 3级），洪水发生时约100万人仍在接受粮食援助，因为去年的旱灾导致玉米价格较正常水平上涨了20%-100%。许多受洪水影响的区域属于半干旱地区（特别是在南部），通常没有充分的预防准备，也没有应对强降雨的基本设备。虽然数千公顷的农作物受损，但充沛的降水量很可能会促使全国作物产量提高。

Drought, heatwaves, and fire 旱灾、热浪和火灾

On November 8, wild fires started in the central provinces of Chile. By mid-December, 49 fires had been reported; by mid-January, 32 fires (out of a total of 100) were still active. In total, about 250,000 hectares of vegetation were lost in seven regions: Valparaiso, Metropolitan, O'Higgins, Maule, Bío-Bío, Aracuanía, and Los Lagos, and 11 people have died. According to Chile’s fire brigade chiefs, poor preparation for climate change and large monoculture plantations were to blame for the disaster (see figure 5.3). 

11月8日，智利中部省份发生火灾，直至十二月中旬，仍有49处火灾；一月中旬，仍有32处火灾存活。7个区域（瓦尔帕莱索、奥伊金斯、马乌莱、洛斯拉戈斯）共计约有25万公顷植被被烧毁，11人死亡。根据智利消防队长介绍，对气候变化和大型种植园的影响准备不足是灾害发生的主要原因。

An extreme heat wave has hit parts of New South Wales and Queensland in Australia at mid-January, with temperatures reaching close to 50°C.

极端热浪袭击了澳大利亚新南威尔士和昆士兰的部分地区，一月中旬，最高温度接近50ºC。

Cold wave 寒潮

At mid-December, a dzud (an extreme cold wave) affected 13 provinces in northern Mongolia. 

十二月中旬，雪灾袭击蒙古国北部13个省份。

A cold wave affected a large area spanning the Mediterranean and parts of central Europe; the conditions started in early January and the cold wave was accompanied by snowstorms, strong winds, and very cold freezing temperatures by local standards (reaching -35°C). Disaster monitoring systems single out Macedonia and Belarus. In North Africa, Morocco reports a less intense but nevertheless severe cold wave from mid-January, affecting particularly regions in the east, north, and south. Neighboring Algeria was affected in its eastern, central and the high plateau regions. In Libya, cold weather was reported from late December. It is unknown whether agricultural impacts are to be expected.

横跨地中海和欧洲中部的大部分地区遭受寒潮袭击，开始于一月中旬，伴随有暴风雪、大风和寒冷冰冻天气（达到零下35度）。在北非，摩洛哥一月中旬经历了不是太极端的严寒天气，主要影响东、北、南部地区。邻近的阿尔及利亚东部、中部和高原地区出现严寒天气。在利比亚，十二月下旬后出现严寒天气，对农业影响是否达到预期尚不清楚。

Figure 5.1. Damage to bananas in Hainan as a result of typhoon Sarika

图5.1. 海南香蕉遭受台风“莎莉嘉”袭击

Source: Wikipedia

Figure 5.2. Map of estimated precipitation between 12 and 18 January 2017 in Mozambique and Zimbabwe

图5.2. 2017年1月12-18日，莫桑比克和津巴布韦降雨分布图

Source: Modified from http://www.unitar.org/unosat/node/44/2535.

Figure 5.3. Dramatic night view of wild fires in Chile 图5.3. 智利森林大火夜视图

Source: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/ jan/29/chiles-forest-fires-poor-planning-fire-chiefs-monoculture-fire-breaks.